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US Tariff Pause on Beijing Boosts China-Plus-One Strategy Impact

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China-plus-one strategy

China-plus-one strategy

Reuters, Beijing/Mexico City/Hanoi, May 13 In order to continue to profit from a “China-plus-one” strategy by multinational companies, manufacturing hubs like Vietnam and Mexico are under pressure to negotiate better deals with the United States in light of a recent agreement between the United States and China to halt exorbitant tariffs on one another.
Under the new global order brought about by President Donald Trump’s shifting tariff pronouncements, nations evaluate their performance by comparing themselves to other nations rather than by the terms of their trade agreements with the United States.

Under Trump’s now-paused “reciprocal” global tax regime announced on April 2, many countries that have been subject to high penalties for the past five weeks have found comfort in having lower rates than China, where U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports increased from 20% to an embargo-like 145% between March and May.
For instance, Vietnam’s rate of 46% was higher than China’s, although Thailand’s was 36% and Malaysia’s was 24%.
Because of their comparative advantage, manufacturing hubs expected more international companies to open offices in their nations and lessen their reliance on China, which might continue the “China-plus-one” trend that has been going on for years.

Following a breakthrough in U.S.-China trade negotiations that led in a 90-day reprieve from the startlingly high tariffs on China, leaving a base import tax rate of 30% for goods made in China, everything is now up in the air once more.
Even with Trump’s 90-day suspension on reciprocal charges, tariffs on China are still higher than those on rival industrial centers, which pay 10%. However, some analysts believe the agreement may slow the trend of multinational corporations moving their supply chains further away from China.
“The rules of the game are still uncertain,” said consultant and North American trade specialist Diego Marroquin Bitar. “I think companies are just going to delay their investments as much as they can.”

Trump attempted to use tariffs on China as pressure to compel businesses to move their manufacturing to the United States beginning in his first term.
Over the past ten years, corporations like Apple (AAPL.O) have begun searching for alternatives to China, with an emphasis on nations that offered relatively low labor costs and fewer tariffs. However, the “reshoring” to the U.S. did not materialize in major part.
Mexico and Southeast Asian countries benefited the most, but if the U.S.-China tariff hiatus is prolonged, those nations may lose their comparative edge.

At the moment, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia are negotiating their own tariff agreements with the US. Mexico is attempting to lower separate import taxes on particular goods, including cars, after avoiding reciprocal tariffs.


DEALS FOR SWEETER


According to Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Shanghai’s Fudan University, businesses that had thought about accelerating their efforts to offshore manufacturing from China may now put the brakes on because of the U.S.-China trade thaw.
“They will maintain their current situation, keep China as their main operations hub and make appropriate partial arrangements in neighbouring countries, but the bulk of their business will remain in China,” he stated.

The unpredictability of Trump’s policymaking is “very painful for companies” attempting to determine whether or how much to decouple from China, according to Sun Chenghao, a fellow at Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy.
“The current cooldown in tensions does not mean that U.S. firms dare to boldly engage in business activities in China,” he stated. “Everyone is still waiting for the possibility that tariffs might be imposed again.”
The surprise U.S. thaw with Beijing increases pressure on nations like Vietnam, which had also drawn Chinese manufacturing since Trump slapped tariffs during his first administration, to negotiate better terms of their own.

According to Leif Schneider, head of the international law firm Luther in Vietnam, “Vietnam will position itself as an appealing alternative to China in regional investment strategies if it is able to negotiate a better deal than China, which is more than likely after today.”
“This was already the outcome of the ‘First Trade War’ introduced by the first Trump administration,” he stated.
Pledges for new foreign investments in Vietnam have already decreased due to trade tensions and uncertainties; in April, they totaled $2.84 billion, a 30% decrease from March and an approximate 8% year-over-year loss.

President Claudia Sheinbaum has emphasized Mexico’s comparative advantage over the United States on numerous occasions. Under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, the majority of exports to the United States are duty-free; nevertheless, Trump has placed significant tariffs on steel, aluminum, automobiles, and car parts.
Even if Monday’s trade agreement with China is upheld, multinational corporations will still be hesitant to rely entirely on Chinese production, according to Jorge Guajardo, a former Mexican ambassador to China and international trade adviser. Mexico stands to gain from this.
“If you are Walmart, Target, Home Depot or any other important importer who just went through five weeks of hell, you appreciate the reprieve but you are looking for a different supply source,” he stated.

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Stock Market Rally: Stocks Head for Best Month Since 2023 Ahead of Inflation Data | Updatix News

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stock market rally

stock market rally

May 30, London (Updatix) – As traders awaited important inflation data and evaluated the most recent developments in Washington’s back and forth on tariffs, world equities were on track to reach their highest month since late 2023 on Friday, and the dollar was flirting with its first monthly increase of the year.

Since a U.S. court halted the majority of President Donald Trump’s tariffs then a federal appeals court temporarily reinstated them, markets have been erratic throughout the week as investors attempt to weather a turbulent news flow.

Despite an unexpected decline in German retail sales, European stocks’ initial Friday decline turned into 0.3%–1% gains, while Wall Street futures started to decline once more ahead of the U.S. PCE inflation data that was due later.
The dollar, which was up 0.3% on Friday (.DXY), is eerily near to its first positive month of 2025, while MSCI’s main world index (.MIWD00000PUS), which opens a new tab, is up more than 5% this month. /FRX
It benefited from a 0.5 basis point increase in benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields in European trade, which serve as a stand-in for U.S. borrowing costs. A strong 7-year bond auction and weak economic indicators caused them to decline on Thursday.

Despite being up for the day and still up for the month, oil prices were headed for a second straight weekly decline due to predictions of another OPEC+ supply boost.
After its over 2% gain the day before, Japan’s Nikkei (.N225) suffered overnight profit taking. Investors were particularly worried about the impact of tariffs and the amount of Japanese debt.
In London, the yen was trading at about 144 to the dollar, up as much as 2% from its low on Thursday. At $1.13 and $1.34, the euro and pound were down 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively. /FRX
Due to the removal of U.S. tariffs, Apple suppliers saw a 1.2% decline on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (.HIS), in Asia. Both the mainland Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) and the new tab had a 0.5% decline, despite their strong monthly advances. In keeping with the main world index, Korean stocks have performed even better, recording their best month since November 2023.
In the meantime, an index that tracks emerging market currencies (.MIEM00000CUS) has risen almost 2% for the month. Moreover, it is at its peak since November 2023. Ghana’s cedi has increased by about 40% this month because to the skyrocketing price of gold.
“The legal battle adds yet another layer of uncertainty, but Trump’s trade agenda remains alive and kicking,” stated Rodrigo Catril, senior FX analyst at National Australia Bank.
“The only thing that looks more certain is more uncertainty,” he stated.
The Trump administration claimed that talks with major trading partners were still going on despite the judicial turmoil.
In an interview with Fox News, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that although negotiations with China were “a bit stalled,” he was set to meet with a high-level Japanese team later on Friday in Washington.

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Impact of Trump Harvard International Student Ban on Global Education | Updatix News

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Trump Harvard international student ban

Trump Harvard international student ban

HONG KONG— There are many other nations and colleges that are willing to accept overseas students, along with their skills that have contributed to the United States’ position as a global leader in science and technology, if President Donald Trump is not interested in them attending Harvard.

The Trump administration imposed a ban on international enrollment beginning in the 2025–2026 academic year, casting doubt on the future of international students at the oldest, wealthiest, and most prestigious university in the United States.

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said Harvard was being held responsible for “fostering violence, antisemitism, and coordinating with the Chinese Communist Party on its campus” after the university declined to provide copious amounts of data about its international students.

Harvard filed a lawsuit against the move, claiming it was illegal, and a federal court in Boston put it on pause for two weeks on Friday. Current international students would be compelled to transfer elsewhere or lose their legal status if the Trump administration wins, and future students would not be allowed to enroll at Harvard.

International students, who frequently pay significantly higher tuition than their American counterparts, are a major source of enrollment for American universities, such as Harvard. Many of them choose to remain in the United States, where they have contributed to significant advancements in strategically significant domains like artificial intelligence, where China, the United States, and other countries are engaged in fierce competition.

Simon Marginson, a professor of higher education at the University of Oxford, told NBC News via email Monday that Trump’s campaign against Harvard is a “treatable policy error” that might jeopardize the United States’ position as a global leader in research and development since World War II.

According to him, a decline in foreign enrollment would hurt American universities’ “talent pipeline” and revenue while helping their rivals in the United States. He predicted that “Western Europe will also gain significantly” and that “China will become much more attractive than before to students and researchers from the Global South.”

In addition to significant financial cuts and attempts to meddle in colleges’ internal affairs, Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric was already causing anxiety among international students attending American universities. The Trump administration has jailed and attempted to deport students due to their pro-Palestinian and other action, while hundreds of students have had their visas revoked.

Over 25% of Harvard’s 25,000+ students are international, and students from more than 140 nations, including the future queen of Belgium, have been affected by the impending ban.

China, which was once the largest supplier of international students in the United States before being surpassed by India last year, accounts for 20% of Harvard’s total number of international students.

Disruptions from the Covid epidemic and rising U.S.-China tensions have caused the number of Chinese students in the U.S. to decline, from over 372,000 in 2019–20 to over 277,000 in the 2023–24 academic year.

The China Initiative, a national security initiative during Trump’s first term that sparked allegations of racial profiling, also turned off Chinese academics. Many of them have relocated to Chinese universities to conduct their study.

Beijing responded to the Harvard ban by claiming that educational collaboration between the United States and China is “mutually beneficial” and will “protect the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese students and scholars overseas.”

At a routine briefing in Beijing on Friday, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated, “China has consistently opposed the politicization of educational exchanges.” “The United States’ actions will only harm its own reputation and credibility abroad.”

Hours after Trump’s Harvard ban, 23-year-old Beijing-born Izzy Shen said her visa application was denied.

According to Shen, whose application had already been stamped as “approved,” “I didn’t expect it to be so fast.”

After Thursday’s injunction hearing, Shen, who was accepted into Harvard’s Master of Design Engineering program, said she was still “relatively optimistic” and that things would “get clearer.”

Due to increasing doubts regarding her enrollment, Duo Yi, who was accepted into Harvard Kennedy School’s doctoral program in public policy, claimed she is currently looking into other choices. She claimed that Trump is “just too unpredictable.” “I am unable to predict the course of his future policies.”

Universities and governments throughout the world are not waiting to court the Harvard students that Trump turned away. Authorities in Hong Kong, China, have called on academic institutions to engage proactively “to attract top talent.”

Hong Kong’s top leader, John Lee, stated on Tuesday that the city’s “doors are wide open” to “any students who face discrimination and unfair treatment in the U.S.”

Four institutions in Hong Kong are listed in the top 100 of U.S. News & World Report’s Best Global institutions Rankings, with Harvard at the top. However, experts claim that since Beijing enacted a national security law in 2020, academic freedom in the 7.5 million-person former British colony has declined.

Harvard undergraduates and postgraduates, along with those who have received confirmed admission offers, are welcome to enroll at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology instead, the university announced on Friday.

With the launch of a $570 million effort this month called “Choose Europe,” Europe has also attempted to entice academics who are concerned about funding cuts and research independence under Trump.

In a speech promoting the program at Paris’ Sorbonne University, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stressed “free and open research” without specifically mentioning Trump.

“Europe will not compromise on its principles as threats arise globally,” she declared. “Europe must continue to be the birthplace of scientific and academic freedom.”

American institutions continue to be the top choice for many Chinese students, according to Alex Zeng, an overseas education consultant based in Guangzhou, a city in southern China, despite worries about the Harvard ban.

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House Passes Trump Tax-Cut Bill, Sends It to Senate for Approval

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The measure might increase US debt by $3.8 trillion and restrict the poor’s access to food and health programs.

Trump tax-cut bill

Trump tax-cut bill

A significant package that would implement Donald Trump’s tax and spending policies, add trillions of dollars to the US debt, and perhaps deny millions of Americans access to federal safety net programs was passed by Republicans in the House of Representatives on Thursday.

With 215 votes in favor and 214 against, the narrow Republican majority passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act early in the morning along party lines. Weeks of discussions that raised doubts about the GOP’s capacity to reach a consensus on Trump’s main legislative priority in a chamber they control by just three seats came to an end with its passing.

“I praise the Almighty. To put it bluntly, a lot of prayer went into bringing this all together. Following the bill’s passing, House Speaker Mike Johnson stated, “There were a few moments over the last week when it looked like the thing might fall apart.”

Trump applauded the decision and urged the Senate to swiftly approve the legislation. He posted on Truth Social, saying, “This is possibly the most important piece of legislation that will ever be signed in our nation’s history.” “It’s time for our friends in the US Senate to start working and bring this bill to me as soon as possible! Time cannot be wasted.

The plan will fulfill a number of Trump campaign pledges, such as extending corporate and individual tax breaks and repealing Joe Biden’s renewable energy incentives. Additionally, it pays parents $1,000 if they open “Trump accounts” for their children, lowers taxes on gratuities, overtime, and auto loan interest, and increases the deduction for older taxpayers—but only while Trump is in office.

Along with funding new personnel and facilities for mass deportations of undocumented immigrants, the law also funds the construction of a wall along the Mexican border.

The Republican Party has authorized new job restrictions and funding cuts for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (Snap) and Medicaid, which offer healthcare to Americans with disabilities and the poor, to help balance its expenses. Millions will not be able to benefit from these improvements, according to analysts.

The Congressional Budget Office, which is impartial, estimates that the bill will cost $3.8 trillion over the next ten years, even with the savings. The House passed it less than a week after Moody’s, a credit rating organization, warned of the US’s high national debt and federal budget deficit and revoked the country’s prestigious triple-A rating.

The package is “deeply unpopular, which is why Republicans made every effort to advance it during the dead of night,” according to House Democratic leaders, who have denounced it as a “tax scam.”

The minority leader, Hakeem Jeffries, the whip, Katherine Clark, and the caucus chair, Pete Aguilar, declared, “This battle is just getting started, and House Democrats will keep using every weapon at our disposal to make sure that the GOP Tax Scam is buried deep in the ground, never to rise again.”

Barack Obama also issued a rare critique of the bill. Republicans in Congress are currently working to pass a measure that would jeopardize the health coverage of millions of Americans. The former president stated, “They want to increase costs for working-class families, reduce federal funding for Medicaid, and eliminate tax credits that help more people afford coverage.” To reject the bill, he urged citizens to get in touch with their senators.

There are few options for Democratic lawmakers. Republicans are using the budget reconciliation process to keep the party from facing a filibuster in the Senate because it is in the minority in both chambers.

Disagreements among Republicans themselves are the bill’s largest barrier. Johnson had to make concessions to lawmakers from Democratic-led states who wanted a larger deduction for state and local taxes in the days before the vote (Salt). He also had to appease right-wing members who wanted more cost reductions and moderates who were cautious about making drastic cuts to safety net programs.

With the help of Trump’s Tuesday visit to the Capitol, the speaker seems to have healed those divisions. After some cuts were scrapped, moderates gave up, but MPs who resisted Salt received a larger tax break. Johnson also succeeded in swaying the majority of fiscal conservatives, as seen by the only two senators who opposed the bill—Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Warren Davidson of Ohio—who both pointed to its effect on the deficit.

During the bill’s debate, Massie declared, “This bill is a debt bomb ticking.” “On the Titanic, we won’t be moving deck seats tonight. We’re aiming toward the iceberg and loading coal into the boiler.

Now that the bill is in the Senate, Republicans say they want it on Trump’s desk before the Independence Day holiday on July 4.

Ahead of a crucial vote on the Trump bill, a House panel continues its protracted debate.(Trump bill debate)

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